FEATURE: Quo Vadis, Cultural Business?

 “Oh dear, now the ride is back with its pessimism and is once again ruining my whole day with its presumptuous statements. Nobody needs that, we already have enough problems right now, we have to see the beautiful side of life right now.” Some readers will definitely react to the following article in this or similar way and I’ll say it right up front is your right! Yes, the text is presumptuous and yes, it is not based on any evidence, but only on a subjective assessment, coupled with 40 years of business experience and it takes place in the future, which is already in the realm of the crystal ball. Therefore, anyone who takes an assessment that is diametrically opposed to this article has exactly the same chance of it turning out the way it does, so have fun in the great playing field of dystopia under the banner: “Quo vadis, cultural business?”

Where are we, what are we?

The year is 2045. With a few exceptions, the great musical superstars who got everything out of their fans for financial gain until their biological end have said goodbye. Some exceptional artists were able to make it into their nineties with a lot of effort, but at this age not even Mick Jagger can anymore do the balancing jumps that he himself still did in his mid-70s with his mouth hanging open on the fourteenth / fifteenth (you name it ...) farewell tour who celebrated the Stones on stage. The paying audience, which had accepted the fraud of backing tracks for many other artists so that the memory of their personal youth could be better celebrated, is now also faced with the problem that their hair has become thinner and their bellies have become fatter. that the next generation of cultural creators somehow cannot achieve the subjectively influenced attitude to life when it comes to emotionality.

Why is that? It's hard to imagine that the active artist scene would have become "worse", on the contrary, there are YouTube videos on the Internet showing musicians sitting on the edge of the bed in a teenager's room, playing at a volume at which the click of the plectrum is louder than that Amplifier, hand-made fireworks that make you dizzy. It really can't be the craft, so why is it? is it the artistic perception, is it the entertainment factor, is it the financial aspect, or maybe a little of each? Or has the music simply become arbitrary, because almost 90 years of crashing electric guitars/drum attacks of all stripes and electronic music excursions in all audible and tangible frequencies have meant that every tone, every sound and every beat has already been heard? Has music as we know it outlived itself?

Answer: yes!

Hear, hear, quite presumptuous. True, it's absolutely presumptuous of me, but I'll try to briefly summarize in bullet points why I personally believe that in a few years at the latest the music scene will only consist of "listen to oldies" and "the PC generates what you need." " consists.

Who is to blame for the misery?

“What misery?” one or the other is probably asking themselves. Well, I am firmly convinced that in several years the physically tangible musician who haptically performs a form of music on an analog instrument will no longer exist in the form as we know it, at least not in a form in which he can be heard from Audience, as we still know it today, is paid for it.

Let’s take the heyday of “haptic” music, the seventies. The audience flocked to bands in which musicians entertained the people with long solo excursions with overly long solos. The focus was on craftsmanship and, with a few exceptions, all “Musician’s Musician” still have their origins in this era. In the eighties the solos became shorter, the productions more elaborate and the focus was on the song and the arrangement. Everything was big, everything was bigger than life, the parties, the advances, the egos. The '90s still produced the odd superstar, but even the biggest band names of the time were already beginning to establish previously unknown combinations of existing musical styles, both acoustically and visually.

Then came the PC and with it the beginning of the end. “What is this stupid statement, everything that is currently on the market today was made possible by the PC,” I can already hear the first shouts from the back rows. And that's exactly the point, the PC has opened up possibilities that you couldn't have imagined before... FOR EVERYONE! Regardless of whether you are technically, creatively or otherwise gifted or hard-working, companies like Apple, with Logic or Garageband, enable ANYONE to glue beats or “songs” together without ever having an instrument in their hand, having completed an artistic training or perfecting a creative output to have.

To see what a flood of opportunities brings, you only need to look at the financial market. What is in abundance has no value apart from how good it is. The more musicians there are, the easier it is to create productions, the less valuable the result is. You can already see the effects today, the big money is almost exclusively made by the really, really big names like Stones, Queen, Guns'n'Roses or KISS, who should only play their old songs so that you can still feel like you're in the audience can feel young.” The now 70-year-old artist is happy and can transfer a few more million to his account in addition to his three-digit million assets.

The Next Generation?

And what about the offspring? In 2045? Which offspring? You've probably noticed that the first programs (still kept under wraps) only require about 20 minutes of speech from a politician, for example, in order to create a perfect speech pattern that is almost indistinguishable from the original. How long will it be before Freddy Mercury can still sing new songs, perfected to the max, even decades after his death? This way musicians can live forever.

Perfect for the older ones among us. Add to that an arena like the one that was just built for ABBA in the UK and the avatars can perform forever and sing new songs until the people, or consumers, who were influenced by the big names of bygone eras, have also passed away. Lucky whoever owns the rights to the trademarks such as band names etc., the flood of money will be unbelievable.

But what about young people? Anyone born today will not be able to relate to artists like ABBA, Beatles or anyone else from the oldies sector in 2045. What about the “new” artists? Well, the “new” artists will still be able to generate a little income here and there, but the chance of becoming a real star is just as high as if vehicles with combustion engines were still registered in 2045. There is simply nothing left to earn. Does anyone really believe that Spotify and Co. as private companies will ever increase their payouts? Not in life! No matter what, people love streaming (rightly), but no one would be willing to pay a monthly fee of €50 or €100 at the moment, which is what would be needed for “species-appropriate” remuneration.

And the live operation? There's definitely still something to be had! Here I recommend taking a look at Japan, where the next generation of live artists are currently being “programmed”. Anime characters sing and dance as projections across the stage and sell out halls and arenas. So that it doesn't sound completely artificial, there is a live band playing, but you could also put actors there and have everything played off the tape, no one in the audience would notice and if they did, they wouldn't be interested. Of course, the backings would have to be recorded, which would give “real” musicians a brief right to exist, but once the PC can let Freddy Mercury sing, he can also let Carlos Santana play any solos with his typical tone. You can then download the corresponding algorithms for the DAW, or you can let the PC do everything itself using AI.

Classic?

“That's all well and good, but the great masters of classical music remain unrivaled and need a real orchestra, right?” Yes, but today even the largest and best orchestras can only be kept alive with massive subsidies from the state/state or the private sector become. The Berlin Philharmonic Orchestra, for example, runs an extremely complex program in which they stream their concerts worldwide in real time and thus generate very good sales, especially in Asia, but even despite this income, the orchestra does not even manage to cover its costs. And all this with the most complex compositional and arranging masterpieces that humanity has ever produced.

I would imagine that in the near future people will no longer say "Siri, play something calm from the sixties" but rather "Siri, create a song in the style of Michael Jackson's Thriller with a short solo by Jeff Beck that is 3 long: 00 minutes.” Or the PC analyzes your mood using wearables and then composes music for you in real time. Artists as people in their function as idols or similar become superfluous; every person is their own artist. Rockstars are becoming superfluous, everyone is a rockstar and if you need an audience for your event, you can generate one using your VR glasses. Have you always wanted to play at Rock am Ring or Wacken? No problem, for a small in-app purchase, even in front of a sold-out crowd, with colleagues who will tell you after the show how good you were.

Payment for artists? Why, I'm an artist myself! You could see what value an artist REALLY has in 2020 with Covid. An artist lives on the breadcrumbs that society throws at him when society is doing well in terms of food/drink/health/money. If that's missing, no one cares whether an artist can pay their rent or not. “I would also have liked to be a musician, now what it's like to have to do a real shitty job in order to survive.” In 2045 there will no longer be musicians as we know them today, only hobby musicians , subsidized classical music and rights exploitation of deceased superstars... and once a year a new superstar artificially pumped up by the industry who is sold as “we are working on the stars of the future”.

The only thing that can stop this trend would be another supply chain problem in the chip sector or the fact that high-performance computing capacity is needed in other areas... even then the artists would not be on the same level as the industry. Do you think I'm exaggerating? Could you ever have imagined that Harley Davidson would build electric motorcycles?

As for the musical future, the economic gap will be wider than ever before and the job of the typical live musician will disappear forever.

P.S. Every cashier at ALDI already earns more than 90% of all musicians…

————————

Additional Informations:

**1. Live Performances:**
   - *Local and Emerging Artists:* Small, local gigs may pay modestly, ranging from $50 to a few hundred dollars per performance. Emerging artists often rely on local shows to build a fan base.
   - *Established Professionals:* Fees for established professionals can vary widely based on factors such as venue size, ticket prices, and the artist's popularity. They may earn from several hundred to thousands or even millions per gig for top-tier acts.

**2. Streaming Earnings:**
   - *Independent and Emerging Artists:* Streaming services like Spotify or Apple Music typically pay artists a fraction of a cent per stream. Independent and emerging artists might earn a few thousand dollars per year, depending on their popularity and streaming numbers.
   - *Mainstream and Chart-Topping Artists:* Highly popular artists with millions of streams can generate significant income from streaming, ranging from tens of thousands to millions of dollars annually.

**3. Album Sales and Merchandise:**
   - *Independent and Emerging Artists:* Self-produced albums and merchandise sales contribute to artists' income. These can vary widely, but an emerging artist might earn anywhere from a few hundred to a few thousand dollars per year.
   - *Mainstream and Chart-Topping Artists:* Successful mainstream artists can earn substantial amounts from album sales, especially during promotional periods. Merchandise sales, including clothing and concert memorabilia, can also be lucrative, potentially reaching millions of dollars annually.

**4. Licensing and Sync Deals:**
   - *All Artists:* Licensing music for commercials, movies, TV shows, and video games can be a significant income source. The fees for these deals can vary widely, with successful placements contributing substantial amounts to an artist's earnings.

**5. Digital Platforms and Social Media:**
   - *All Artists:* Leveraging digital platforms and social media can lead to additional income through sponsored content, brand partnerships, and collaborations. Artists with substantial online followings may receive payments for endorsing products or promoting events.

**6. Record Deals and Publishing:**
   - *All Artists:* Record deals and publishing agreements play a crucial role in determining an artist's income. Major record labels may provide substantial financial support, but independent artists often retain more control over their music and a larger share of revenue.

**7. Economic Factors and External Challenges:**
   - *All Artists:* Economic conditions, unforeseen events (e.g., global pandemics affecting live performances), and shifts in market trends can impact musicians' income. Adaptability and resilience become essential for sustaining financial stability.

In summary, the income of musicians is a complex interplay of various revenue streams, industry dynamics, and personal factors. While success can bring substantial financial rewards, emerging and independent artists often face challenges in establishing a sustainable income. Diversification, adaptability, and strategic navigation of the evolving music landscape are key elements for musicians aiming to build a successful and resilient career.